ADAPTIVE-STABILIZATION STRATEGY FOR MANAGING AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES IN UKRAINE UNDER CONDITIONS OF WAR INSTABILITY

This article introduces a conceptual foundation for an adaptive-stabilization methodology aimed at governing agricultural enterprises in Ukraine amid war-related instability. The research highlights the pressing necessity for robust managerial solutions in a sector subjected to extensive security, infrastructural, financial, and workforce-related disruptions. The strategic aim is to preserve functional viability while establishing the groundwork for post-conflict restoration. The methodology combines classical tools of strategic planning such as SWOT and PESTEL analysis with scenario modeling, financial diagnostics, and digital transformation approaches. The research applies a restrained scenario labeled “Adaptation to Instability” as the most plausible under current conditions. Key components of the model include scenario-based risk assessment, diversification of logistics through EU corridors and Danube ports, increased processing depth via local facilities, flexible labor mechanisms, and digital integration through ERP and SCM systems. The findings demonstrate that the agrarian sector, despite substantial exposure to external shocks, retains its systemic importance for the Ukrainian economy, representing a major share of GDP and exports. The restrained scenario model offers an actionable roadmap to mitigate structural risks such as labor shortages, investment stagnation, and policy volatility, while also expanding international trade relations and reducing dependency on any single market. Strategic recommendations are aligned with resource optimization, financial stabilization, and the implementation of modern agrotechnologies. The practical significance of this work lies in its applicability to real-world crises. It provides managers and policymakers with a versatile toolkit for maintaining economic sustainability of agricultural enterprises in highly volatile environments. Furthermore, it serves as a guide for international partners engaged in Ukraine’s agricultural recovery, offering a structured pathway for targeted assistance and investment planning.