Analysis of the Current Risk of <i>Leishmania infantum</i> Transmission in Greece and its Projection

Canine leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease caused by the protozoan parasite <i>Leishmania infantum</i>. It is transmitted by different species of the genus <i>Phlebotomus</i>, with <i>Phlebotomus perfiliewi</i> and <i>Phlebotomus tobbi</i> being the most widely distributed species in Greece. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are ecoinformatics tools that have already been successfully applied to model risk maps of other parasitosis according to the environmental variables necessary for their survival. The resulting risk map in this study determines the risk of <i>L. infantum</i> infection in Greece, considering the habitat suitability of <i>Ph. pefiliewi</i> and <i>Ph. tobbi</i>, as well as the infection rate of the parasite in the vector. Central Macedonia, Thessaly, Attica, and islands such as the Cyclades, Dodecanese, and Crete, as well as some urban areas of Thrace, present a high risk of infection. These areas are characterised by a suitable habitat for both vectors and a high infection rate. Regarding the projection to 2080 under a climate change scenario, an increase in transmission risk (9.6%) can be observed in the Epirus area, Peloponnese peninsula, and Aegean islands, occurring mainly towards higher altitude areas. The use of ENMs to generate habitat suitability models of <i>Ph. perfiliewi</i> and <i>Ph. tobbi</i>, as well as their weighting with the infection rate, is a very useful tool to predict the risk of <i>L. infantum</i> transmission in the study area. Thanks to this study, a more complete risk map is obtained that facilitates the control and prevention of this disease.