The Polarising Legacy of Rafael Correa in Ecuadorian Politics (2017–2023)

This article examines the phenomenon of “runoff reversals” in presidential elections, where second-place candidates in the first round surpass frontrunners in the runoff and become president. Focusing on Ecuador's 2021 and 2023 presidential elections, it identifies two key factors behind these reversals: affective leader polarisation and opposition fragmentation. Analysing original survey data, election results, news articles, and social media posts, the article argues that the antagonistic divide between correístas and anti-correístas has been the most important cleavage in Ecuadorian politics. The supporters of Correa maintained their relative unity and cohesion, whereas his opponents remained ideologically, regionally, ethnically, and personally fragmented. This dual presence of polarisation and fragmentation explains how Correa-endorsed candidates performed relatively better in one-round parliamentary and local elections than in two-round presidential elections that required a plurality instead of a majority. The findings contribute to the literature on populism, polarisation, opposition, and democratic resilience in Latin America.