Dollar exchange rate cyclicality: Phase analysis

Dollar exchange rate analysis requires the involvement of relevant methods, which would enable us to study an important component of time series that is cyclicality. This paper investigates the cyclical nature of the US dollar to Russian ruble exchange rate. A fresh approach to the study of cyclicality is the modeling of dynamics by spline function, by differentiation of which we obtain a growth rate model. Cyclicality in economic dynamics is demonstrated by a successive change of phases distinguished by speed of changes in exchange rate. Identification of cyclicality phases is performed by phase trajectory that is a curve that simultaneously describes changes in the dollar exchange rate and its growth rate. The phase analysis revealed several cycles in the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate, as well as determined metric and time parameters of the cycles.