Tales of tails: sales distribution and the role of retail channels in the German book market

Abstract This paper examines the sales distribution and genre composition of the German book market across different retail channels—e-commerce, chain bookstores, and independent bookstores—during the period 2011–2018. Using a unique dataset of weekly sales data covering approximately 50,000 top-selling book titles, the study challenges the economic relevance of the “long tail" effect, which posits that niche products gain substantial market share through digitalization. Our findings reveal that both online and offline sales are predominantly concentrated on a few best-selling titles, with negligible contributions from the “long tail” products. However, a “middle tail" of moderately popular books, more prevalent in online sales and independent bookstores, suggests diverse consumption patterns not adequately captured by traditional models focusing on the extremes of sales distributions. We also identify substantial differences in genre composition and book attributes across channels, addressing a gap in the existing literature. For instance, chain stores exhibit higher concentrations of bestsellers, whereas independent bookstores feature a more varied selection of older titles. These findings imply that consumer preferences vary significantly across retail channels, indicating limited substitutability between them.