Profitability Assessment of Water Electrolysis-based Hydrogen Production System via Sensitivity Analysis

This study aims to analyze the economic profitability for an electrolysis-based hydrogen production system utilizing power grid supply in relation to international economic trend of hydrogen production. In detail, this study quantified key parameters of an electrolysis-based hydrogen production system impacting installation and operational cost and profit based on return on investment (ROI) via regression-based sensitivity analysis. In order to analyze the economic profitability of hydrogen production according to various energy market context, the electrolysis hydrogen production system was modeled in the TRNSYS program. Key parameters for sensitivity analysis were selected as follows: (1) hydrogen selling price, (2) industrial electricity cost, (3) discount rates from 15 countries. In this study, profit is expressed through the ROI, and key variables such as hydrogen production margin (HPM), system CAPEX ratio, system lifespan, and discount rate were calculated using a linear regression equation (R²: 0.95). As a result, HPM had the most significant impact on ROI (sensitivity: 39.44), while CAPEX and lifespan had minimal effects (sensitivity: 1.67, 1.27), and the discount rate had almost negligible impact (sensitivity: 0.007). These results quantified the impact of key parameters on hydrogen production system, hence this paper can support decision-making in the planning and investment of hydrogen production system.