Does Renewable Energy Enhance Energy Security? Evidence from a Granger Causality Analysis of Countries in the Context of Geopolitical Risks and Socioeconomic Challenges

In the context of escalating geopolitical instability and the global decarbonisation agenda, understanding the strategic role of renewable energy in enhancing national energy security has become increasingly urgent, especially for transition economies with legacy fossil fuel dependencies. This study aims to investigate whether the expansion of renewable energy contributes to measurable improvements in energy security in these countries. The analysis draws on annual panel data from 19 countries spanning the years 2000 to 2023. Renewable energy development is measured using three indicators: the share of renewables in total installed electricity capacity, electricity generation, and gross final energy consumption. Energy security is captured via the World Energy Council’s Trilemma Index, a multidimensional composite score. All renewable indicators were transformed using Box-Cox procedures to correct right-skewed distributions. The panel fixed-effects Granger causality models were estimated to have two-year lags to detect temporal causality while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. The empirical results consistently show a significant unidirectional causal relationship running from renewable energy to energy security. Specifically, lagged increases in renewable electricity capacity are associated with subsequent improvements in energy security scores (β = 0.36, p < 0.01), as are increases in renewable electricity generation share (β = 0.28, p < 0.01) and in renewable energy’s share of final energy consumption (β = 0.38, p < 0.05). Reverse causality tests, examining whether improvements in energy security predict renewable expansion, yield either insignificant or marginal results. These findings underscore that renewable energy acts as a proactive driver of systemic energy resilience, rather than merely a passive beneficiary of a secure energy environment.