Conflict Management Towards Creating an Open Community: Integrated Models for Measuring and Scenario Forecasting the Level of Social Stress in Local Communities

The article addresses the pressing issue of increasing social tension and localized conflicts in Ukrainian municipalities during 2020–2024, encompassing both the pre-war phase and the period of full-scale war. Special attention is given to modeling the trajectories of social dynamics, including a potential post-war recovery scenario. The study’s primary objective is to construct a Conflict Index and develop a stochastic model of state transitions within the social environment to assess the conflict potential of local communities. The research focuses on urban territorial communities in Ukraine, with the Kyiv municipal community selected for in-depth case analysis ‒ given its role as the capital with the highest concentration of political activity, budgetary resources, and social challenges, as well as the availability of detailed statistical data for the period 2020–2024. The data sources include official publications from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, analytical reports, and publicly available local budgets. The methodological framework combines cluster analysis, transition probability matrix construction, and Monte Carlo simulation modeling. The modeling results revealed the most probable trajectories of social developments, notably the transition from a state of “normalcy” to “social tension” (0.48), and from “escalation” to “crisis” (0.67). A high probability of returning to a normal state from the “recovery” phase (0.80) was also confirmed. Conflict Index scores were calculated for ten key communities, followed by clustering based on the level of social risk. The findings may be utilized by national public authorities, analytical think tanks, and local governments for purposes of strategic planning, conflict monitoring, and response.