Motivational Drivers of Population Migration (on the Example of Young People in the Arctic Zone of Russia)

The article presents an approach to studying the determination of migration processes, based on the sociopsychological essence of this phenomenon. The authors propose considering the activity of migration actions as a result of the interaction of environmental factors and individual personality traits based on the integrated concept of the motivational driver of migration. To identify motivational drivers of migration, a step-by-step methodology has been developed that can determine combinations of external factors and personality traits that most strongly correlate with migration activity. The methodology includes the use of such statistical methods as factor analysis, regression analysis, the chi-square test of independence, cluster analysis, and decision trees. The methodology was tested using the example of priority geostrategic territories of the Arctic Zone of Russia for a cohort of young people from the population. The empirical basis of the study was the results of a survey of 8600 people aged 16–35 years living in the Arctic territories of nine federal subjects of the Russian Arctic. The study identified ten motivational drivers of out-migration of young people from the Arctic regions, grouped into four types of factors: professional development, education, climate and ecology, and social connections. The structural components of motivational drivers are indicated and are meaningfully interpreted. The results of the study enrich the existing tools for studying migration processes, since they make it possible to analyze the complex configuration of the motivational driver of migration, which consists of a combination of environmental conditions and personality traits that have a nonlinear combined effect on the decision to migrate. Identifying the motivational drivers of migration has practical significance in adjusting the socioeconomic and migration policies implemented in the region.