Industry of Russian Regions under New Anti-Russian Sanctions

This study is devoted to the analysis of the rates and factors of industrial growth in Russian regions during the period of the Special Military Operation and new anti-Russian sanctions of 2022–2023. The work used cartographic, comparative, and correlation analysis and econometric modeling. The study showed multidirectional growth of the extractive and manufacturing industries in Russian regions in 2022 and 2023, as well as different patterns of development of Russian regions during the period of new anti-Russian sanctions. Interregional differences in the growth rates of industry and its main sectors both during the period of stagnation (2022) and moderate growth (2023) turned out to be significant. Over two years, industrial growth rates ranged from –26.8% in Kaliningrad oblast to +38.3% in Bryansk oblast. Using correlation and regression analysis, the influence of five groups of factors on the dynamics of industrial production in Russian regions was tested. Econometric analysis showed a statistically significant positive impact of the quality of human capital, as well as the share of the communications and telecommunications industry in gross regional product, on the growth of industrial production in Russian regions in both 2022 and 2023, and a negative impact on this growth of the level of openness of the economy, expressed in dependence on imports, exports, and foreign investment, although the significance of these factors changed over time. State participation in the economy, manifested in the share of state ownership and the growth of budget expenditures, became a more noticeable factor in industrial growth in 2023. In the same year, the share of the private sector ceased to be a significant factor in reducing the rate of industrial growth, as it had been in 2022. In 2023, the share of manufacturing in a region’s GRP became an important factor in industrial growth. The conducted research may be useful for both regional and federal authorities for adjusting industrial and interbudgetary policies during the period of new anti-Russian sanctions.