Impact of Integration and Geopolitical Factors on the Russian Far East’s Trade with Foreign Countries

The aim of the study is to quantitatively assess the influence of integration and geopolitical factors on trade between the Russian Far East and foreign countries. Estimates obtained from gravity modeling for 2000–2021 revealed a stimulating effect on the foreign trade of the Far East from integration factors (participation of Russia and trading partner countries in the WTO; Russia’s participation in deep trade agreements) and a restraining effect from geopolitical factors (intense political conflict between Russia and foreign countries; sanctions imposed on the Russian economy). It was established that the participation of Russia and its trading partner countries in the WTO contributed to an increase in Far East foreign trade by 58%. The positive indirect influence of the WTO factor and the stimulating effect of the global economic situation on the foreign trade turnover of the Far East are determined; the sensitivity of the open economy of the macroregion to trade liberalization at the global level is indicated. It was revealed that creation of deep integration formats by Russia with EAEU countries and Vietnam contributed to an increase in Far East’s trade turnover with them by 141%; however, the share of these economies in the macroregion’s foreign trade was small. It was found that the presence of an acute political conflict between Russia and foreign countries reduced the Far East’s trade with these countries by 79%, but due to the small share of these countries in the macroregion’s trade turnover, this effect was virtually unnoticeable. It was determined that the introduction of sanctions on Russia by a number of Western countries in 2014–2021 led to a 43% reduction in the Far East’s trade turnover with them and could have contributed to accelerated construction of infrastructure for the supply of hydrocarbon raw materials to the Chinese market, limiting the opportunities for geographic diversification of the macroregion’s exports.