Optimal Simulation for Refuge Space in Earthquake-Prone Areas Orienting Population Structure Change

Evacuation simulations in disaster-prone areas have been extensively studied and applied in regional disaster protection, emergency evacuation, and urban and rural planning and management. By simulating the evacuation process and optimizing the layout of evacuation spaces, it is possible to enhance evacuation efficiency and minimize disaster losses. However, the changing population structure, characterized by increased life expectancy and declining birth rates, has exacerbated the issue of population aging, presenting challenges for the planning and management of evacuation spaces in disaster-prone areas. In this paper, we propose a novel optimization strategy for evacuation spaces in disaster-prone regions, specifically addressing the influence of population aging. We introduce a population prediction strategy to forecast changes in population structure and spatial distribution. Subsequently, we employ AnyLogic simulation software to simulate pedestrian evacuation and utilize ArcGIS for the optimization of the evacuation space system. Taking the town of Aba, a disaster-prone and densely populated area located in western Sichuan, China, as a case study, we initially simulate the original evacuation space system before proceeding with its optimization. The research demonstrates that our proposed approach can effectively enhance evacuation space planning in the area, potentially leading to significant positive impacts in reducing disaster losses and improving evacuation efficiency.