SCENARIO MODELING OF URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE CHANGES USING GIS

Over the past decade, the need to introduce digital tools for effective urban infrastructure management has grown significantly. One of the main areas of such management is scenario modeling of changes in the urban environment, which allows for early assessment of the consequences of planning decisions, infrastructure projects, and environmental changes. In this context, geographic information systems play the role of a universal platform for integration, analysis and visualization of spatial and attribute data. The purpose of this article is to study the principles of applying geoinformation scenario modeling to predict changes in urban infrastructure in the context of urbanized space transformation. Thus, the article explores the main approaches to the implementation of scenario-based modeling of urban infrastructure changes using geographic information systems (GIS). Typical types of scenarios — transport, engineering, development, and environmental — are analyzed, including their structure, input data, and implementation tools. The conditions and stages of model construction are identified, including the analysis of initial spatial data, technical support, and visualization formats. Particular attention is paid to organizational and regulatory aspects of implementing geoinformation technologies in the process of strategic and operational urban management, as well as the involvement of government authorities, developers, and the public in spatial planning based on digital models. Practical examples of scenario-based modeling implementation are considered in Ukrainian cities (Kyiv, Lviv, Kharkiv) and worldwide (Barcelona, Rotterdam, Helsinki), demonstrating the effectiveness of GIS as both an analytical and communication tool. The proposed approaches and conclusions will contribute to a deeper understanding of the nature of scenario modeling in the urban environment, reveal the potential of GIS for forecasting urban infrastructure changes, and support the development of a digital decision-making culture in the field of territorial development.