Study on Relationship between Climate Variability and Turmeric Production in Manipur; India

Background: Turmeric is a vital crop in Manipur, but its production is increasingly influenced by changing climatic conditions. Understanding the relationship between climate variables and turmeric output is essential for sustainable agricultural planning in the region. Methods: This study analyzes the causal relationship between climate factors and turmeric production in Manipur using secondary data from 2001-02 to 2020-21. Key climate variables examined include minimum temperature (°C), relative humidity (RH%), wind speed (m/s), solar radiation (W/m²), and rainfall (mm). Statistical tools such as Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), mean, standard deviation, standard error, and the Cuddy Della Valle Index (CDVI) were used to assess variability and trends. Additionally, the Correlogram and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was applied to data from 2013 to 2022 to evaluate the stationarity of climate and production variables. Result: The findings indicate high instability in turmeric cultivation area during Periods I and III, alongside moderate fluctuations in production and significant variability in rainfall and wind speed. The ADF test revealed stationary behavior in variables such as turmeric area, production, productivity, maximum RH, and wind speed. Conversely, temperature, wind direction, solar radiation, and rainfall exhibited non-stationary patterns. A strong positive correlation was found between turmeric production and factors like cultivation area, solar radiation, and maximum temperature. This study highlights the significant influence of climate variability on turmeric production in Manipur. The insights can guide policymakers and farmers in developing climate-resilient agricultural strategies to ensure stable turmeric yields in the future.