Association between abdominal circumference and being at risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Peruvian adults

Introduction: Even though multiple risk factors for the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have been identified, evidence on the association between abdominal circumference (AC) and being at risk for this disease is scarce. Objective: To analyze the association between AC and being at risk of developing T2DM in a Peruvian population. Materials and methods: Cross-sectional analytical study. An analysis of secondary data obtained from the Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Familiar peruana 2022 - ENDES (2022 Peruvian Demographic and Family Health Survey) (16 058 women and 12 349 men) was performed. The risk of T2DM was estimated using the diabetes risk score developed by Bang. Student's t-test was used to evaluate differences in AC between groups (DM2 risk vs. no DM2 risk). Furthermore, to evaluate the association between AC (normal vs. elevated) and being at risk of T2DM, first a bivariate analysis (Chi-square test and crude Odds ratio (OR) calculation) was performed, followed by a multivariate analysis (binary logistic regression). Finally, the correlation between AC and T2DM risk score was assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient (Rho). Data for men and women are presented separately. Numerical analyses (Student's t and Spearman's Rho) were used to explore general relationships and trends, while categorical analyses (Chi-square and OR) were employed to assess specific associations that translate into practical risk criteria. Results: The mean age of women and men was 37.32 and 39.26 years, respectively. The mean AC was higher in participants at risk of developing T2DM in both women and men (97.15cm vs. 89.257cm and 97.77cm vs. 85.128cm). In the bivariate analysis, having an elevated AC and being at risk of developing T2DM showed a statistically significant association of low intensity in women (V=0.115) and statistically significant of moderate intensity in men (V=0.519). In the multivariate analysis, it was found that having a high AC showed a 4.56-fold increase in the probability of being at risk of developing T2DM in women (OR=4.56) and a 24.54-fold increase in men (OR=24.54). Finally, the correlation between AC and the T2DM risk score was moderate in women (Rho=0.565) and strong in men (Rho=0.641). Conclusions: Increased AC is associated with a higher probability of being at risk of developing T2DM in the Peruvian adult population, mainly in men.