Future increase in European compound events where droughts end in heavy precipitation

Abstract Compound events where droughts end with heavy precipitation can lead to damage to infrastructure, crops and ecosystems that exceed those of an isolated drought or heavy precipitation event due to increased flooding and runoff from the hardened dry ground. Based on regional climate models we show that the occurrence of these compound events (drought ending with one in 100-day precipitation event) during summer in Europe increases by around 35% (+/−22%) for both the mid-century and end-of-century future projections with an intermediate emission scenario compared to present-day. This increase to 97% (+/−84%) for droughts ending in a more extreme precipitation event (occurring approximately once a year) and is greater than the increase in drought and heavy precipitation events separately. Central and Southern Europe are likely to experience the strongest absolute increase. Results highlight the need to prepare for and adapt to these rare but potentially devastating events.