Power System Health Assessment Based on Degradation Modeling and D-S Evidence Theory

In order to solve the problems of small sample size of degradation data and lack of evaluation of health results in the equipment system, a health assessment method based on Wiener degradation modeling and D-S evidence theory was proposed. Taking the dynamical system as the object, the Wiener degradation modeling is used to predict the degradation of the dynamical system parameters, the degradation curves of the parameters in the time domain are calculated, and then the deterioration degree of all parameters is calculated and the weight values are assigned according to the variation weight formula, and finally the health curve of the system in the time domain is obtained by using the weighted summation method. At the same time, the identification framework of the health state of the system is established, and the parameter deterioration degree is combined with the fuzzy theory to determine the basic probability distribution of the health state, and the information fusion is carried out through the method of weight change evidence theory to calculate the support degree for the health degree. The experimental results show that the degradation modeling of the Wiener process can successfully predict the degradation data, and the variable weight evidence theory can successfully overcome the problem of D-S evidence theory and calculate the basic confidence number of system health.