A Study on the Consumption and Emission of Sulfur Hexafluoride in China's Power System Based on System Dynamics

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) is a greenhouse gas with a high global warming potential (GWP of 23,900), identified as a controlled emission in the Kyoto Protocol. It is primarily used as an insulating gas in the power industry. Currently, there is a lack of systematic long-term forecasting and management models for SF <tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$_{6}$</tex> consumption and emissions in the power industry, which limits the formulation and implementation of management policies. This study employs a system dynamics model and scenario simulation methods to simulate the consumption and emission trends of <tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$\text{SF}_{6}$</tex> in China's power system from 2005 to 2050. It analyzes the cumulative consumption and emissions, sources of consumption and emissions, emission reduction potential, and delayed emission effects. The results indicate that there is a significant delay effect in <tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$\text{SF}_{6}$</tex> emissions from China's power system, and emissions are expected to continue growing. Enhancing technological levels and reducing the impact of driving factors can significantly decrease <tex xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">$\text{SF}_{6}$</tex> emissions. Additionally, the study proposes a series of policy recommendations to effectively control SF6 emissions from China's power system. This study provides a replicable model and method for forecasting and analyzing SF6 consumption and emissions in the power industry, which can support the achievement of emission reduction targets in the power industry.