Optimal Dispatch rule for Cascade Reservoirs under Uncertainty in Wind and Solar Power Integration

Large-scale wind power and solar power grid connection brings great uncertainty, posing new challenges to the operational stability of power grids and reservoir systems. To address these challenges, this study proposes a new dispatch rule extraction framework considering the uncertainty of hydro-wind-solar hybrid system operation based on interpretable theoretical principles. Specifically, the framework first established a time series data set and verification method that considers uncertainty to introduce variable scenarios that may occur in the future, and then proposed a comprehensive dispatch rule extraction process based on the “forecast-generation-optimization-extraction” paradigm, which can effectively improve the generalization ability of the dispatch rule extraction model. The empirical results of a hydro-wind-solar complementary clean energy demonstration base in a river basin in China show that the proposed framework effectively reduces the uncertainty brought by the access of wind and solar power to the power system, provides strong theoretical support for the efficient utilization of water resources and clean energy, and contributes to the sustainable development of renewable energy systems.