The recent rise and fall of the Greenland White-fronted Goose <i>Anser albifrons flavirostris</i> :a precarious population wintering on the Celtic fringe of Europe

The Greenland White-fronted Goose <i>Anser albifrons flavirostris</i> breeds in west Greenland and winters in Ireland and Scotland. Unlike many other discrete flyway populations of the circumpolar Anser albifrons, this subspecies has shown recent unfavourable conservation status. Numbers declined dramatically from the 1950s onwards until protection from winter hunting in 1982/83 resulted in increases, until numbers peaked in around 1999, since when numbers have shown declines to return to early 1980s population levels. We show that recent declines have been the result of increasing snow and low temperatures in spring during the period of goose arrivals affecting productivity. We use winter flock count, age ratio, capture-resighting and habitat data to establish heterogeneity in flock abundance trends, incorporating flock differences in survival, reproductive success and immigration/emigration rates. We also use tracking and behavior data from tagged geese to quantify effects of decision making throughout the annual cycle of individual reproductive success and survival, with some concluding thoughts on the implications for conservation actions for this rare and declining goose population.