Rethinking and arresting Eurasian hegemony: the centrality of central Asia to Indo-Pacific strategies

Abstract Drawing on classical geopolitical theory, chiefly developed by Halford John Mackinder and Nicholas John Spykman, this article examines central Asia's significance for China's pursuit of Eurasian hegemony. Our theory-driven analysis suggests that de facto control of central Asia by China would provide several interlinking strategic advantages: aggregated critical resources, enhanced continental connectivity and, counterintuitively, seaward expansion options. The reconfiguration of the global distribution of power resulting from greater Chinese suzerainty in this region would, we argue, pose a distinct challenge to the US-led international order. While contemporary strategic discourse tends to focus on maritime competition in the Indo-Pacific, classical geopolitical theory underscores why continental power remains decisive. The prospect of a dominant power controlling the Eurasian heartland—long identified as a key geopolitical fulcrum—demands renewed attention from Indo-Pacific allies and partners. The enduring insights of Mackinder and Spykman remain crucial for understanding how control over Eurasia—particularly central Asia—can shift global power dynamics, restructure regional alignments and shape the strategic calculations of both hegemonic aspirants and their counterbalancing coalitions. By revisiting these foundational theories, this article highlights their continued relevance in assessing the evolving geopolitical contest over Eurasia and its implications for the international order.