Modeling of value added by production costs at enterprises in Ukraine using time trends

The article examines current issues related to the dynamics of value added by production losses at enterprises in Ukraine. The role and significance of value added are determined at the level of individual business entities and the level of the economy as a whole. The purpose of the study is to study the dynamics of value added by production costs at enterprises in Ukraine and a time trend analysis of the specified indicator in general for enterprises of all types of economic activity. The content of the indicator «value added by production losses» and its reflection in the reports of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, as well as the procedure for its assessment for each enterprise separately according to reporting data (Form No. 1-entrepreneurship (annual) «Structural survey of the enterprise»; Form No. 2 «Report on financial results») are considered. The procedure for determining the aggregated value added indicator by production costs for the economy of Ukraine as a whole and for individual industries or types of economic activity, or regions has also been determined. An analysis of the dynamics of value added by production costs at enterprises in Ukraine for 2012–2023 has been conducted. It has been established that value added by production costs at enterprises in Ukraine during the study period is increasing, with the following exceptions: in 2013 for all enterprises in general, as well as for large and medium-sized enterprises; in 2015 small enterprises and microenterprises; in 2020 large and medium-sized enterprises; in 2022 for all enterprises in general, as well as for large and medium-sized enterprises. Positive dynamics of the indicator in 2023 were recorded both for all enterprises in general and in terms of their size groups, which indicates adaptation to new business conditions. Time trend models of the dynamics of added value of production costs of enterprises in Ukraine in 2012–2023 were constructed, their analytical form, parameters and characteristics were determined. The constructed models were checked for adequacy to statistical data using the Fisher criterion. The possibility of using the obtained models for forecasting the added value of production costs at the macro level was substantiated.