The rising cost of maritime transport as a driver of global inflationary processes

The article comprehensively analyzes the interrelationship between maritime transport costs, the dynamics of freight rates, and global inflationary processes. Special attention is given to identifying the transmission mechanisms through which transportation and logistics expenses changes affect the overall price level in the global economy. Based on a comparative analysis of key indices – SCFI and CCFI (container shipping), BDI (dry bulk), and BDTI and BCTI (tanker shipping) – the study traces correlations between freight rate fluctuations and import prices across different macro-regions. The findings demonstrate that rising freight rates rapidly transmit to import prices, generating inflationary pressure, particularly in countries dependent on seaborne trade. The most sensitive to these changes are small island developing states, least developed countries, and those lacking access to alternative transport corridors, where transport costs may exceed 10% of total import value. The study also investigates the impact of recent global crises – COVID-19, the full-scale war in Ukraine, armed attacks in the Red Sea, and disruptions in the Panama Canal –on maritime logistics, route distances, fuel expenses, and insurance rates. These factors led to a sharp surge in SCFI and CCFI indices, reaching historic highs in 2021–2022. According to the International Monetary Fund, a doubling of maritime transport costs results in a 0.7 percentage point increase in the global consumer price index (CPI), comparable to the impact of rising oil or food prices. However, the inflationary effect of freight rate fluctuations tends to be more persistent and prolonged. For instance, the peak in freight tariffs in 2021 added approximately 2% to global inflation in 2022. The research emphasizes that geo-economic instability drives transportation costs and forces a reconfiguration of trade routes, requiring governments and businesses to adopt flexible and adaptive logistics strategies. Moreover, the study highlights the importance of international cooperation in regulating transport and logistics flows to mitigate inflation volatility and ensure global trade stability. The conclusions underscore the need to develop an integrated maritime transport policy that addresses both economic and environmental challenges while strengthening maritime infrastructure as a critical component of global economic security.