Pricing Shocks Across New Energy Industry Chains under Chinas "Dual Carbon" Policy Adjustment: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis of the Photovoltaic Subsidy Phase-out

Chinas Dual Carbon goalspeaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving neutrality by 2060rely heavily on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, yet the 2021 downstream subsidy withdrawal has disrupted pricing dynamics across its industry chain. This study employs a quasi-experimental approach to analyze price shock transmission following the August 2021 subsidy cessation, addressing three questions: How does subsidy withdrawal affect upstream, midstream, and downstream prices? What mechanisms drive transmission? Are effects heterogeneous? Using difference-in-differences (DID) and regression discontinuity design (RDD), we examine monthly data (20182023) from Tonghuashun iFinD. Results show a 44.3% downstream price surge within 12 months, a 19.0% midstream increase over 34 months, and a 30.0% upstream rise over 68 months, with amplified volatility (downstream standard deviation: 0.97 to 1.03, p < 0.05). Lagged transmission reflects production and contractual buffering. This study is the first to quantify these effects in Chinas PV chain, offering evidence to optimize Dual Carbon policies through gradual subsidy cuts, carbon market reforms, and corporate strategies. Findings inform sustainable energy transitions by addressing short-term volatility and long-term decarbonization.