A Study on Regional Carbon Emission Forecasting in China Based on M-LMDI and CNN-LSTM

Faced with the increasingly severe climate problems, China pledged at the Paris Climate Summit to strive to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. This paper takes regional carbon emissions as the research object, conducts in-depth analysis of the series of hidden influencing factors, establishes a series of indicators based on the contribution of different influencing factors, establishes an energy consumption prediction model and a regional carbon emission prediction model based on demographic and economic changes, and puts forward a regional dual-carbon (carbon peak and carbon neutral) target and pathway planning methodology based on the three simulation scenarios established to help China's carbon emission reduction efforts in a reliable and effective way. Under the three simulation scenarios developed, a regional dual-carbon (peak carbon and carbon neutral) target and pathway planning methodology is proposed, which will provide a reliable and effective reference basis to assist China's carbon emission reduction efforts.