The Vulnerability of Overwintering Insects to Loss of the Subnivium

ABSTRACT Aim Winter climate change threatens the subnivium (i.e., the microhabitat that exists between the snowpack and the ground), and the community of species that depends on it for overwintering survival. One group of species that will likely exhibit an array of responses to subnivium loss is overwintering insects because they vary in their cold tolerance strategies and lower thermal limits. For an assemblage of eight insect species that range in their cold tolerance strategies and include both pollinators and pests, we investigated species‐specific vulnerabilities to shifting subnivium conditions. Location Great Lakes region in the United States. Methods We applied information on each insect's supercooling point to spatially‐ and temporally‐explicit models of minimum subnivium temperatures generated from active‐warming experiments and comprising three scenarios: current conditions (i.e., control), +3°C and +5°C. Results Although species varied in their vulnerabilities, our predictions indicated that exposure to lethal temperatures generally decreased under warming of 3°C, but increased under warming of 5°C, indicating that once enough warming happens, a tipping point is reached. We also found that freeze‐tolerant species (i.e., species that can survive at temperatures below their supercooling point) possess a more cryptic vulnerability to winter climate change because sustained below‐freezing temperatures were sufficient to induce vulnerability (i.e., predicted mortality), even when temperatures were above the supercooling point. Main Conclusions This work provides a better understanding of the vulnerability of different insect species to winter climate change, which is critical because overwintering survival and the fitness consequences incurred during overwintering likely represent important bottlenecks for the population dynamics of subnivium‐dependent species.