Using Ecological Modeling to Study the Response of Distribution Dynamics of <i>Paraglenea fortunei</i> (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) to Human Activities and Climate Change to in Northeast Asia

Invasive species pose an increasing threat to biodiversity, agriculture, and ecosystem stability, especially under accelerated climate change. <i>Paraglenea fortunei</i>, a longhorn beetle native to East Asia, has emerged as a potential pest, warranting urgent attention to its possible range expansion. This study aims to predict the current and future potential distribution of <i>P. fortunei</i> using an optimized MaxEnt ecological niche model under various climate change scenarios across Northeast Asia. The results indicate that climatic factors, such as temperature stability, precipitation, and human activities are key drivers influencing its distribution. These findings suggest that <i>P. fortunei</i> prefers to live in ecosystems with cooler climates, more consistent changes, and abundant precipitation. Meanwhile, <i>P. fortunei</i> may expand to many countries and regions in the future, including central and western China, Sakhalin in Russia, the Hokkaido Islands in Japan, Vietnam, Myanmar, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. In addition, <i>P. fortunei</i> may migrate to higher latitudes as climate conditions change. These findings contribute to a better understanding of climate-driven distribution dynamics and offer scientific guidance for pest risk management and regional ecological planning.