Solar Flare Prediction Using Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) and Decomposition-LSTM with Sliding Window Pattern Recognition

Abstract We investigate the use of long short-term memory (LSTM) and decomposition-LSTM (DLSTM) networks, combined with an ensemble algorithm, to predict solar flare occurrences using time series data from the GOES catalog. The data set spans from 2003 to 2023 and includes 151,071 flare events. Among approximately possible patterns, 7552 yearly pattern windows are identified, highlighting the challenge of long-term forecasting due to the Sun’s complex, self-organized-criticality-driven behavior. A sliding window technique is employed to detect temporal quasi-patterns in both irregular and regularized flare time series. Regularization reduces complexity, enhances large flare activity, and captures active days more effectively. To address class imbalance, resampling methods are applied. LSTM and DLSTM models are trained on sequences of peak fluxes and waiting times from irregular time series, while LSTM and DLSTM, integrated with an ensemble approach, are applied to sliding windows of regularized time series with a 3 hr interval. Performance metrics, particularly the true skill statistic (0.74), recall (0.95), and the area under the curve (AUC = 0.87) in the receiver operating characteristic, indicate that DLSTM with an ensemble approach on regularized time series outperforms other models, offering more accurate large-flare forecasts with fewer false errors compared to models trained on irregular time series. The superior performance of DLSTM is attributed to its ability to decompose time series into trend and seasonal components, effectively isolating random noise. This study underscores the potential of advanced machine learning techniques for solar flare prediction and highlights the importance of incorporating various solar cycle phases and resampling strategies to enhance forecasting reliability.