Populism and affective polarization in the times of "Giorgia": an assessment of the effect on European voting

Despite the attention paid by comparative studies to the themes of populism and affective polarization (AP), the connections between these two concepts remain under-investigated. Both of them describe the conflict between ingroup (“us”) and outgroup (“them”) individuals. Nonetheless, although in the first case, the conflict pits the people against the elite, in the second case conflict occurs between party supporters and other parties (e.g., leaders, members). Even if conceptually and empirically separate, populism and AP are key explanatory factors of today’s politics and voting behavior. The increase in voter discontent, also fueled by a succession of economic, migratory, and pandemic crises, has indeed facilitated the rise of populists and affective sentiments. Do they work in parallel or show some points of contact? How do they interact in voting choices across different parties? In this paper, we analyze the Italian context to shed light on the dynamics and effects that AP and support for populist parties produce on voting behavior. We present new data from a dedicated survey conducted in Italy during the 2024 European elections, and our analysis highlights the complex implications stemming from these two political phenomena: Whereas AP is positively associated with voter turnout and support for ideologically driven parties, certain forms of populism are negatively associated with turnout and influence party choice in distinct ways.