Response Mechanism of Carbon Fluxes in Restored and Natural Mangrove Ecosystems Under the Effects of Storm Surges

As climate change intensifies the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, such as storm surges, understanding how extreme weather events alter mangrove carbon dynamics is critical for predicting the resilience of blue carbon ecosystems under climate change. Mangrove forests are generally recognized for their resilience to natural disturbances, a characteristic largely attributed to the evolutionary development of species-specific functional traits. However, limited research has explored the impacts of storm surges on carbon flux dynamics in both natural and restored mangrove ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed short-term responses of storm surges on carbon dioxide flux and methane flux in natural and restored mangroves. The results revealed that following the storm surge, CO2 uptake decreased by 51% in natural mangrove forests and increased by 20% in restored mangroves, while CH4 emissions increased by 14% in natural mangroves and decreased by 22% in restored mangroves. GPP is mainly driven by PPFD and negatively affected by VPD and RH, while Reco and CH4 flux respond to a combination of temperature, humidity, and hydrological factors. NEE is primarily controlled by GPP and Reco, with environmental variables acting indirectly. These findings highlight the complex, site-specific pathways through which extreme events regulate carbon fluxes, underscoring the importance of incorporating ecological feedbacks into coastal carbon assessments under climate change.