The Role of Air Mass Advection and Solar Radiation in Modulating Air Temperature Anomalies in Poland

This study examines the roles of air mass advection and solar radiation in shaping daily air temperature anomalies in Warsaw, Poland, from 2008 to 2023. It integrates solar radiation data, HYSPLIT back-trajectories, air temperature measurements, and machine learning methods, which are key atmospheric factors contributing to temperature anomalies in different seasons. Radiation dominates during warm seasons, while advection-related geographic factors are more influential during winter. Increased solar radiation is observed across all seasons during high-positive temperature anomalies (exceeding two standard deviations). In contrast, cold anomalies in summer are accompanied by strong negative solar radiation anomalies (−136.3 W/m2), while winter cold events may still coincide with positive radiation anomalies (25.7 W/m2). Very slow circulation over Central Europe, which occurs twice as often in summer as in winter, leads to positive temperature (1.3 °C) and negative radiation (−2.1 W/m2) anomalies in summer and to negative temperature (−1.9 °C) anomalies and slightly positive radiation (0.3 W/m2) anomalies in winter. The seasonal variability in the spatial origin of air masses reflects shifts in synoptic-scale circulation patterns. These findings highlight the importance of considering the combined influence of radiative and advective processes in driving temperature extremes and their seasonal dynamics in mid-latitude climates.