Rainfall forecast in Brazil using machine learning

Rainfall forecasting through machine learning can play a crucial role in several areas, such as agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and public safety. The machine learning models have the ability to anticipate climate patterns and extreme events, allowing plantation planning, water resource management, and forecasting energy demands, as well as adopting preventive measures against natural disasters. In this work, we explore three machine learning models (random forest, long short-term memory, and bidirectional long short-term memory) to predict the amount of precipitation in five Brazilian regions (South, Southeast, Central-West, Northeast, and North). We use three-variable reanalysis climate data: local temperature, Atlantic Ocean temperature, and total precipitation. The models are trained by means of the local and Atlantic Ocean temperatures as input features and the total precipitation as a label. Our results indicate that all models perform satisfactorily in their predictions. We verify that the random forest exhibits average absolute errors less than the errors related to the recurrent neural network models. Our results show the effectiveness of machine learning models in predicting rainfall patterns.

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Publication Details

Journal
Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
Published
2025-07-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0259222
Primary Topic
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Rainfall forecast in Brazil using machine learning

Iberê L. Caldas, Enrique C. Gabrick, Kelly C. Iarosz, Ricardo L. Viana et al.
Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
article

Rainfall forecast in Brazil using machine learning

Iberê L. Caldas, Enrique C. Gabrick, Kelly C. Iarosz, Ricardo L. Viana, Antonio Marcos Batista, Sidney T. da Silva, Leticia Milani
article en

Abstract

Rainfall forecasting through machine learning can play a crucial role in several areas, such as agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and public safety. The machine learning models have the ability to anticipate climate patterns and extreme events, allowing plantation planning, water resource management, and forecasting energy demands, as well as adopting preventive measures against natural disasters. In this work, we explore three machine learning models (random forest, long short-term memory, and bidirectional long short-term memory) to predict the amount of precipitation in five Brazilian regions (South, Southeast, Central-West, Northeast, and North). We use three-variable reanalysis climate data: local temperature, Atlantic Ocean temperature, and total precipitation. The models are trained by means of the local and Atlantic Ocean temperatures as input features and the total precipitation as a label. Our results indicate that all models perform satisfactorily in their predictions. We verify that the random forest exhibits average absolute errors less than the errors related to the recurrent neural network models. Our results show the effectiveness of machine learning models in predicting rainfall patterns.

Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear ScienceVol. 35(7)
Unifor (NO), Universidade de São Paulo (BR), Universitario Francisco de Asís (UY), Universidade Federal do Paraná (BR), Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa (BR)
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Openalex Percentile: Top 85%
Hydrological Forecasting Using AI
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