How Sustainable Are Chinese Cities? Empirical Insights from Eight Cities Using a Multidimensional Catastrophe Progression Model

Sustainable development remains a crucial global priority. Despite significant progress at both the policy and technical levels, disparities in urban development and the absence of a comprehensive evaluation framework impede practical outcomes in China. While previous research has established the value of multidimensional frameworks and international indices for assessing urban sustainability, existing studies often lack the integration of local dynamics and rely on linear methods that cannot fully capture the complex, nonlinear changes in Chinese cities. This study proposes a four-dimensional indicator system and employs the catastrophe progression method to evaluate sustainable development levels. This study used ten years of panel data (2012–2022) from eight representative Chinese cities and normalized and analyzed 38 sub-indicators to derive membership values for each city and dimension. The findings reveal substantial disparities in sustainable development across the cities, with notable improvements in environmental indicators but persistent volatility in social welfare and resource efficiency. Technological innovation and education resource allocation emerge as management priorities for most cities. This methodological innovation fills a critical gap, offering a replicable framework for other developing countries and supporting the localization of global sustainability agendas. The study’s findings directly inform policy, advancing the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals.