Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment in the Province of Almeria (Spain) Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change represents a major global challenge, with semi-arid regions like the province of Almería being particularly vulnerable. Almería’s dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and tourism, coupled with the absence of perennial rivers, increases its exposure to extreme events including heatwaves, droughts, and extreme precipitation events like storms. This study proposes a semi-quantitative methodology to assess climate risk across different sectors at the municipal level, combining indicators of hazard, exposure and vulnerability within the framework of the IPCC AR6. Exposure and vulnerability indicators were derived from regional, national and European datasets, while hazards were characterized using downscaled Essential Climate Variables. After data collection, the indicators were normalized using a percentile-based approach to ensure their comparison and replicability, especially in data-scarce contexts. The results reveal both sectoral and spatial patterns of risk under three different climate change scenarios, highlighting municipalities with a higher level of exposure, vulnerability and risk. Although the static nature of exposure and vulnerability indicators represents a limitation in future risk quantification, the findings remain valuable for identifying priority areas for targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies. The proposed semi-quantitative risk methodology based on indicators is of great interest and relevance for understanding differences at local scales, as well as for implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions adjusted to the real needs of each municipality.