Driving student retention in digital learning: The mediation pathways of motivation, engagement, and satisfaction

Student retention becomes a problem in many distance education practices around the world since the dropout rate in online learning is higher compared to face-to-face learning. A high dropout rate is often associated with a low quality of learning and will affect the reputation of the institution. Various factors have been associated as the drivers of student retention, including student satisfaction, motivation, and engagement in online learning. Universitas Terbuka (UT) provides distance education that also needs to evaluate the implementation of online learning to maintain its student persistence. To obtain a better understanding of student retention associated with student motivation, engagement, and satisfaction, this research was developed by combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. The first stage was to conduct quantitative research by developing a research model considering previous studies and using four variables: motivation, engagement, satisfaction, and student retention. Data collection was carried out using a questionnaire to assess student perceptions of those variables. The questionnaire was developed based on the four variables in the model utilizing a 5-point Likert scale. Three hypotheses were proposed based on research models and tested using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The data collection process managed to collect 616 valid data points using a purposive sampling method. The results verified that all hypotheses were supported except the effect of satisfaction on retention. Given this result, it is crucial to explore further because it was found that satisfaction has no effect on retention, which is contrary to previous research. Therefore, qualitative research was carried out using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) to explore this phenomenon in depth. The ISM results show that time management to study is the biggest obstacle for students to register for the next semester, followed by other obstacles. In the discussion section, managerial implications will be proposed to make a positive contribution to open and distance learning practice.