Emerging threats to energy security - a Delphi study

Energy systems around the world are undergoing immense transformations through many parallel developments. These changes across the energy landscape are introducing new security threats which require a degree of foresight to anticipate and subsequently mitigate the effects of. Therefore, through a systematic 3-round Delphi methodology, this study explores emerging threats to energy security from the political, economic, technological, socio-cultural, and environmental domains. Findings contribute with a broad picture of the emerging threat landscape in an increasingly renewable, integrated, and electrified post-modern energy system. Threats are ranked by the experts in terms of the most critical issues to non-issues, thereby offering insight for policy development. Political short-termism and tunnel vision and polarization are viewed as the most significant threats with a high degree of consensus amongst participating experts, followed by unambitious climate goals which increase environmental threats to energy security in the long-term. Based on these results, policy implications are derived throughout the reviewed domains to bolster long-term energy system resilience. Through its focus on Sweden, this study contributes with insights into the emerging context of countries at the forefront of energy transitions. • 33 threats are presented across a range of five domains. • The majority of threats stem from the political and technological domains. • The most significant threats are political. • Short-termism and tunnel vision are amongst the most critical threats. • Strong consensus across most critical threats.