Scaling the Landscape: Revealing Land Use and Cover Change Patterns in the Colombian Andes

Formulating hypotheses about the drivers of land use and cover change (LULCC) involves identifying patterns within the dynamics of the territory. Conventional basin-level analyses often mask localized patterns driven by social issues such as governance and community dynamics. This study examines the variations in LULCC patterns over 35 years (1985– 2019) by employing hierarchical intensity analysis of change across different spatial extents of the Grande and Chico River basins in the Colombian Andes. To better capture the influence of governance dynamics, the basin was delineated into two subzones with distinct governance characteristics: Zone A, where community-led conservation efforts and protected areas coexist, and Zone B, characterized by limited community participation and less active governance. Results reveal that the intensity of change accelerated significantly after 2010. During this period, forest and paramo ecosystems in the entire basin showed stationary losses, while pasture and non-vegetated areas exhibited systematic gains. Notably, Zone A demonstrated systematic pasture expansion. In contrast, pasture change in Zone B remained statistically dormant. Transition analysis indicated that cropland was the primary source of pasture gains. Qualitative insights from 3 semi-structured interviews corroborated that governance structures, local institutions, and the growing economic appeal of dairy farming are key drivers of LULCC, particularly in Zone A. These findings emphasize the need to integrate multi-scale quantitative assessments with local governance contexts to inform more effective land-use planning and conservation policy.