Labour Market Expectations and Occupational Choice: Evidence from Teaching

This paper investigates why teachers quit. Using new survey data and a modified discrete-choice experiment we find that i) teachers are systematically misinformed about population earnings, and misinformation is correlated with quitting intentions; ii) non-pecuniary factors are the most cost-effective method of reducing teacher attrition; and iii) quitting intentions are more affected by reductions in workplace amenities than symmetric improvements, suggesting preventing cuts is more important than rolling out more generous benefits. Linking our survey data to teachers’ administrative records we show that teachers probabilistic leaving intentions are strong predictors of actual behaviour.