Comparative Analysis of Population Dynamics in Bashkortostan and Tatarstan: The Role of Natural Increase and Migration

The dynamics of regional population figures are of great importance for many aspects of socio-economic development, management, and planning. This study compares demographic trends in two neighboring republics of Russia—Bashkortostan and Tatarstan—which share common historical and cultural backgrounds but demonstrate significant divergences in their population dynamics. The analysis uses official Russian statistics from 1990-2024. Specifically, we utilize fertility, mortality, and migration rates, as well as the official medium-variant population projection by Rosstat. To isolate the impact of natural increase, we constructed an additional zero-migration population projection. We also applied the demographic balancing equation method to estimate net migration. Despite higher fertility rates in Bashkortostan until the late 2010s, Tatarstan’s advantage in attracting migrants, coupled with its lower mortality rates, has led to a narrowing of the population size gap between the two regions. According to Rosstat’s official projection, Tatarstan may surpass Bashkortostan in total population as early as 2029. In this context of low fertility and comparable mortality levels, migration has become the key driver of population change in both republics, now overshadowing the role of natural increase. These findings highlight the need for an in-depth examination of the underlying causes of the observed demographic differences and the development of measures to improve the situation in Bashkortostan, which is experiencing negative trends. Further analysis of intra-regional variations and the use of alternative data sources, such as mobile phone data or social media activity, are required for a more accurate assessment of migration flows.