China’s future food demand forecast based on provincial diets and shared socio-economic pathways

Building on the vast heterogeneity in dietary practices and population size across China, which has contributed to profound regional disparities in food demand, this study incorporated provincial-level dietary preferences and energy needs across different age groups, genders, and residential statuses to project future regional dietary patterns and food demand in China across the five shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The projected diets were proven to be consistent with Chinese dietary practices and fulfilled macronutritrient requirements, compared to dietary guidelines from the EAT-Lancet Commission, the Chinese Nutrition Society, and major peer studies. The dataset covers raw grain demand for 13 major food categories-including rice, wheat, maize, highland barley, tubers, beans, pork, beef, mutton, poultry, aquatic products, eggs, and dairy products-at the provincial level, spanning 2020 to 2100. Diet directly relates to food security, human health, and environmental sustainability. The developed dataset provides detailed demand information at both spatial and food-specific levels, offering valuable insights for conducting food management strategies tailored to regional needs and optimizing resource allocation strategies.