Productivity drivers of winter crop production in Australia: Examining both long-run and short-run impacts

With the escalating impacts of climate change and growing climate variability, winter crop productivity in Australia faces substantial challenges, raising important concerns for food security and the sustainability of agricultural systems. This study addresses this challenge by analyzing how climatic and non-climatic factors have influenced winter crop yields in New South Wales from 1989 to 2023 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Employing the Johansen and Juselius Cointegration (JJC) approach, we established the presence of long-run (persistent and structural changes over time) cointegration among the variables under investigation. Our findings reveal that rising levels of seasonal maximum temperature, rainfall, vapor pressure, and CO 2 concentrations bolster long-run crop productivity, while increasing minimum temperatures and solar radiation pose risks. However, non-climatic factors such as farm debt negatively affect crop productivity. Importantly, the varying short-run (immediate responses to changes in variables) effects underline the complexity of interactions between the crop yield and productivity drivers. These findings highlight the importance of implementing targeted agricultural practices that promote resilient and sustainable winter crop production in NSW in light of changing climate realities. Further research is also required to determine the influence of elevated CO 2 in winter crop plants at different growth stages, as CO 2 concentrations increase the winter crop production in this study. • Rising maximum temperature and CO2 boost long-run winter crop yields. • Minimum temperature and solar radiation pose risks to crop productivity. • Non-climatic factors like farm debt negatively impact winter crop yields. • Short-run effects reveal complex interactions affecting crop output. • Findings emphasize resilient farming practices for NSW’s climate adaptation.