How does ecological compensation change in Hubei Province based on a multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem services value?

Ecological compensation (EC) is a significant method for internalizing the economic externalities of environmental protection. The determination of EC standards has become a hot topic for sustainable ecological and economic development. However, EC amounts estimation under different future scenarios is still lacking, which affects the dynamic assessment of EC implementation effectiveness. Therefore, this study predicted the spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem service value (ESV) and ecological footprint using the FLUS and GM (1,1) models in Hubei Province. Based on this, the spatial and temporal changes of the EC under different scenarios were explored. The results showed an overall decreasing trend in ESV, an increase trend in ecological carrying capacity, and a decrease trend in ecological footprint from 2010 to 2020. The ESV value decreased by 555,704,444 million. The ecological carrying capacity increased by 2610.168 hm2, and the ecological footprint decreased by 243744.362 hm2. Among the future scenarios in 2030, only ESV in the ecological protection scenario increased compared with 2020. Under the four scenarios, the change direction between the local and overall ecological carrying capacity was the same, and the ecological footprint changed less in general. The EC amounts exhibited a geographic pattern of high in the east and low in the west, with an alternating distribution. The Theil Index of EC in Hubei Province declined from 2010 to 2020 but increased under different scenarios. EC had significant variability in the southwestern, northwestern, southeastern, northeastern, and Jianghan Plains of Hubei Province. This study considered the differences in different future policy orientations, incorporated multiple possibilities of future development into the study, and explored the ecological compensation amount and spatial differentiation under scenarios. This funding will provide a strong basis for achieving future green and sustainable development in Hubei Province and formulating ecological compensation policies in sub-regions to achieve precise policy implementation.