Spatiotemporal Evolution and Causality Analysis of the Coupling Coordination of Multiple Functions of Cultivated Land in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

The evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of the coupling coordination among multiple functions of cultivated land serve as an important basis for emphasizing the value of cultivated land utilization and promoting coordinated regional development. The entropy weight TOPSIS model, coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and Geodetector were employed in this study along with panel data from 125 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) for 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2022. Three key aspects in the region were investigated: the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land functions, characteristics of coupling coordination, and their underlying influencing factors. The results show the following: (1) The functions of cultivated land for food production, social support, and ecological maintenance are within the ranges of [0.023, 0.460], [0.071, 0.451], and [0.134, 0.836], respectively. The grain production function (GPF) shows a continuous increase, the social carrying function (SCF) first decreases and then increases, and the ecological maintenance function (EMF) first increases and then decreases. Spatially, these functions exhibit non-equilibrium characteristics: the grain production function is higher in the central and eastern regions and lower in the western region; the social support function is higher in the eastern and western regions and lower in the central region; and the ecological maintenance function is higher in the central and eastern regions and lower in the western region. (2) The coupling coordination degree of multiple functions of cultivated land is within the range of [0.158, 0.907], forming a spatial pattern where the eastern region takes the lead, the central region is rising, and the western region is catching up. (3) Moran’s I index increased from 0.376 in 2010 to 0.437 in 2022, indicating that the spatial agglomeration of the cultivated land multifunctionality coupling coordination degree has been continuously strengthening over time. (4) The spatial evolution of the coupling coordination of cultivated land multifunctionality is mainly influenced by the average elevation and average slope. However, the explanatory power of socioeconomic factors is continuously increasing. Interaction detection reveals characteristics of nonlinear enhancement or double-factor enhancement. The research results enrich the study of cultivated land multifunctionality and provide a decision-making basis for implementing the differentiated management of cultivated land resources and promoting mutual enhancement among different functions of cultivated land.