Impacts of climate change and tropical cyclones on rice farming in coastal Bangladesh

The coastal agriculture sector is highly exposed to natural disasters, especially cyclones, severely affecting rice production and farmer livelihoods in Bangladesh. This study aimed to assess the impacts of Cyclones Amphan and Bulbul on rice production in the cyclone-prone districts of Khulna and Satkhira. The analysis focused on rice-producing farming households in these districts using primary data collected from 400 farmers (200 in each district) through structured interviews, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. T-tests, Cobb Douglas production functions, and panel fixed effects regressions were applied to estimate production losses. The results showed that Cyclone Amphan reduced rice output by 38% in Khulna and 26% in Satkhira. Cyclone Bulbul caused losses of 45% in Khulna and 38% in Satkhira. Average production losses ranged 30 – 37% across both events. Panel regression results further showed that rice production decreased by 29%, 22%, and 26% in Khulna, Satkhira, and both regions combined, respectively, during the cyclone season compared to the pre-cyclone period. Farmers whose primary occupation was agriculture, and who had lower levels of education and smaller household sizes, experienced greater financial losses. These results offer evidence to inform targeted adaptation and disaster mitigation strategies for coastal farming communities.