Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in China

China's unique position as both the largest carbon emitter and a rapidly transitioning economy offers an unparalleled natural experiment in systemic emission mitigation. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions across China's 30 provincial regions (20052020) through a multidimensional framework integrating demographic, economic, and industrial indicators. Utilizing the Geographical Detector Model, the results reveals three key findings. Temporally, provincial carbon emissions exhibited a phased growth trajectory characterized by accelerated expansion during the initial period (20052012) followed by moderated increases post-2012, with interregional disparities transitioning from divergence to convergence. Spatially, persistent emission hotspots emerged in North China, contrasting with stable low-carbon clusters in southwestern and northeastern regions, while dynamic spatial heterogeneity reshaped provincial emission gradients over time. Mechanistically, population agglomeration emerged as the dominant driver, its explanatory power (q-value) surging from 0.2282 to 0.5386, while its synergistic interaction with transportation infrastructure (q=0.9664) critically amplified urban carbon differentiation. These findings systematically unravel the nonlinear dynamics of emission patterns and the polycentric interactions among anthropogenic drivers, offering empirical foundations for optimizing China's dual carbon transition strategies.