Novel Methodology for Determining Necessary and Sufficient Power in Integrated Power Systems Based on the Forecasted Volumes of Electricity Production

This study presents a novel methodology for determining zonal electricity generation and capacity requirements corresponding to forecasted annual production in an integrated power system (IPS). The proposed model combines the statistical analysis of historical daily load patterns with a calibration technique to translate forecast total demand into zonal powers (base, semi-peak and peak). A representative reference daily electrical load graph (ELG) is selected from retrospective data using least squares criteria, and a calibration factor α = Wx/Wie scales its zonal outputs to match the forecasted annual generation Wx. The innovation lies in this combination of historical ELG identification and calibration for accurate zonal power prediction. Applying the model to Ukrainian IPS data yields high accuracy: a zonal power error below 1.02% and a generation error below 0.39%. Key contributions include explicitly stating the research questions and hypotheses, providing a schematic procedural description and discussing model limitations (e.g., treatment of renewable variability and omission of meteorological/astronomical factors). Future work is outlined to incorporate unforeseen factors (e.g., post-war demand shifts, electric vehicle adoption) into the forecasting framework.