Overview of analysis and evaluation models for China's nuclear energy development

Systematic analysis and evaluation of nuclear energy development serves as a cornerstone in shaping national nuclear science and technology strategies. This study undertakes a comparative investigation of global nuclear energy modeling paradigms, aiming to elucidate methodological strengths and limitations in predicting China's nuclear energy trajectory under decarbonization imperatives. Through meta-analysis of international research, we critically examine foundational data architectures and analytical frameworks across three predominant model categories: system optimization models, integrated assessment methodologies, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Our findings reveal substantial disparities between domestic and international modeling systems, particularly in multi-sector data integration, temporal resolution precision, and policy scenario sophistication. The research further identifies critical challenges confronting China's nuclear energy modeling ecosystem, including the need for indigenous model architecture development, cross-sectoral interface standardization, dynamic data infrastructure enhancement, and advanced scenario simulation capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose an integrated optimization framework encompassing institutional coordination mechanisms, technical standardization protocols, and next-generation modeling innovations. This framework is designed to strengthen the scientific rigor of China's nuclear energy planning processes while establishing a replicable methodological reference for domestic researchers. By bridging existing gaps in predictive accuracy and policy relevance, the study provides actionable insights for evidence-based nuclear energy governance under China's dual-carbon transition, ultimately contributing to the development of robust, context-specific analytical tools for sustainable energy system transformation. • Studied the current development status and future trends of nuclear energy at home and abroad. • Analyzed the analysis and evaluation of China's main models for nuclear energy development. • Propose a framework for a self optimized nuclear energy development model system.

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Publication Details

Journal
Energy Strategy Reviews
Published
2025-07-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2025.101789
Citations
8
Primary Topic
Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
5.84

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article

Overview of analysis and evaluation models for China's nuclear energy development

Qi Shi, Hongzhang Cheng, Gangyang Zheng, Xiaoguang Liu et al.
8 citations
Energy Strategy Reviews
Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
5.84
article

Overview of analysis and evaluation models for China's nuclear energy development

Qi Shi, Hongzhang Cheng, Gangyang Zheng, Xiaoguang Liu, Hongyu Zhang, Bo Yang, Tianpeng Wang, Wei Xiong, Xuan Ye, Tao Ma
article en
8 citations

Abstract

Systematic analysis and evaluation of nuclear energy development serves as a cornerstone in shaping national nuclear science and technology strategies. This study undertakes a comparative investigation of global nuclear energy modeling paradigms, aiming to elucidate methodological strengths and limitations in predicting China's nuclear energy trajectory under decarbonization imperatives. Through meta-analysis of international research, we critically examine foundational data architectures and analytical frameworks across three predominant model categories: system optimization models, integrated assessment methodologies, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Our findings reveal substantial disparities between domestic and international modeling systems, particularly in multi-sector data integration, temporal resolution precision, and policy scenario sophistication. The research further identifies critical challenges confronting China's nuclear energy modeling ecosystem, including the need for indigenous model architecture development, cross-sectoral interface standardization, dynamic data infrastructure enhancement, and advanced scenario simulation capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose an integrated optimization framework encompassing institutional coordination mechanisms, technical standardization protocols, and next-generation modeling innovations. This framework is designed to strengthen the scientific rigor of China's nuclear energy planning processes while establishing a replicable methodological reference for domestic researchers. By bridging existing gaps in predictive accuracy and policy relevance, the study provides actionable insights for evidence-based nuclear energy governance under China's dual-carbon transition, ultimately contributing to the development of robust, context-specific analytical tools for sustainable energy system transformation. • Studied the current development status and future trends of nuclear energy at home and abroad. • Analyzed the analysis and evaluation of China's main models for nuclear energy development. • Propose a framework for a self optimized nuclear energy development model system.

Energy Strategy ReviewsVol. 60
Chinese Academy of Engineering (CN), China Institute of Atomic Energy (CN), Key Laboratory of Nuclear Radiation and Nuclear Energy Technology (CN), China Academy Of Machinery Science & Technology (China) (CN), Tsinghua University (CN)
National Key Research and Development Program of China
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
5.84
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