The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria

Nigeria has one of the greatest electricity deficits globally and, even in areas connected to the central grid, struggles to provide reliable power across the nation. Frequent system collapses and widespread reliance on diesel generation present a burden for Nigerian households and the economy as a whole. One causal factor in these collapses is capacity inadequacy owing to reduced plant availability as plants are frequently non-operational due to maintenance or other management issues. Using a combination of OSeMOSYS and FlexTool modelling, this study shows the significant burden that persistently unavailable plants present for decarbonisation of the Nigerian energy system. Modelling which includes reliability improvements nearly halves total system costs and emissions versus business-as-usual. Further, Nigeria is unable to meet its 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) without such improvements, indicating that increasing plant availability and reducing diesel generator use must be prioritized in policy to support national implementation of these targets. • Improved power plant availability can dramatically reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector, even under a business-as-usual scenario. • Nigeria can meet its 2030 Unconditional NDC targets without changing its generation mix if plant availability is improved. • Nigeria can meet its 2030 Conditional NDC targets with energy efficiency investments and improved plant availability. • A 30 % cap on variable renewable energy coupled with full plant availability is expected to reduce system collapses and lost loads. • It is not possible to meet long-term decarbonisation goals without improvement in plant availability and reliability.