Transport Scenario Study for Carbon Neutral and Resilient Urban Planning in Phuket using LEAP Model

Phuket’s economy is a key contributor to Thailand’s GDP, largely due to its thriving tourism industry supported by floating population from provinces and abroad. The city's transport infrastructure is challenged by traffic congestion, flood risks, and the need for carbon neutrality. The increase in number of vehicles and their impact on transport infrastructure are affecting these issues. This paper uses the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) to study Phuket’s land transport sector and develop strategies for resilient and carbon-neutral urban planning. Three scenarios are introduced: business as usual, updated target, and carbon neutral. The study predicts vehicle numbers, energy demand by vehicle and fuel type, and emissions for each scenario. A notable difference is observed between updated target and carbon-neutral scenarios due to increase in biofuel share and electricity decarbonization. The transition toward a higher blend of biofuel, combined with electric vehicles powered by clean energy sources will create a pathway toward emission reduction. Yet, the number of vehicles remains unchanged, requiring further actions to ease congestion. Solutions like improved “last-mile” transport and Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) can further cut emissions and boost efficiency.