Dynamic Response of the Residential Trade Price Index to Changes in Microeconomic Variables in Indonesia

Residential areas have a very important role for a household, so the demand for them has increased over time along with the increase in population.This causes price fluctuations to become one of the main risks faced by households.Residential prices are not only influenced by a country's fundamental economic factors, but the dynamics that occur in supply and demand in the local residential market also influence house prices.This research aims to analyze how the dynamic response of residential prices is when microeconomic variables, namely the variables that form the cost of goods sold for a residential house, experience changes and economic factors interact and influence house prices in Indonesia.In addition, explores information regarding the factors that shape housing price trends and their impact on economic stability in the short and long term.The dependent variable in this research is the residential property price index.Meanwhile, the independent variables used are the construction wholesale trade price index, interest rate on company credit in the housing sector, and gross domestic product.The research analysis method is inductive statistics using the Ordinary Least Square method, which is implemented in an autoregressive model, namely the Partial Adjustment Model.The data used is time series data from 2013 Quarter 3 -2023 Quarter 3. The research results show that all independent variables do not have a significant effect, either short-term or long-term, except for the interest rates on the company credit predictor.This shows that the interest rates on company credit are no longer an obstacle in the housing sector.It is proven that in the property sector, there are almost no bad loans because most developers' sales systems to consumers use the public housing credit model, so developer receipts are relatively smooth.Interest rates on company credit payments are also smooth.